# RSI 30/70 on crypto: does it work? A 10-coin backtest

> A backtest of the textbook RSI 30/70 rule on 10 large coins, Binance spot 2020–2026: profit in 12 of 20 runs, ahead of buy and hold in only 2.

Research · Janorium · Published 2026-10-20  
Web page: https://janorium.com/articles/rsi-30-70-crypto-backtest

Not as a way to beat holding. The textbook RSI(14) rule — buy when RSI climbs back above 30, sell when it crosses 70 — made money in 12 of 20 coin × timeframe runs on Binance spot in 2020–2026, but beat buy and hold in only 2 and the median of random entries with the same holding time in 7.

The answer first: RSI 30/70 is not a broken rule, it is a slow one. On daily candles it made money on 8 of 10 large
coins, with two trades out of three closing in profit — and still finished far behind simply buying and holding on 8 of
them. On 4-hour candles it made money on only 4 of 10. Against random entry dates with the same holding time it looks
no better than chance: only 7 of 20 runs did better than the median random run, and none made the top 10%.

## Setup

- **Rule, as in the textbook, untuned:** RSI with period 14 on the run's timeframe. Buy when RSI crosses back above 30
  (it was at or below 30 on the previous candle and is above it now). Sell when RSI crosses above 70. No stop-loss, no
  take-profit, no time limit — a trade stays open until RSI reaches 70. One position at a time, long only.
- **Coins:** BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, LTC, LINK, BCH and TRX — ten large coins that have Binance spot history on
  the platform from the start of 2020.
- **Market and period:** Binance spot, 4h and 1d candles, 2020-01-01 → 2026-10-01. 20 coin × timeframe runs.
- **Costs and fills:** 95% of equity per trade, 0.1% fee and 0.05% slippage on each side, orders filled at the next
  candle's open after the signal, 10,000 USDT per run.
- **Two baselines:** buy and hold of the same coin over the same run, as the platform reports it; and a random-entry
  baseline computed from candles — 2,000 simulated runs per cell with the same number of trades and the same average
  holding time as the rule, entered at random dates, with the same size and costs.

How such a test is set up in general is in the guide
[how to backtest a crypto strategy](https://janorium.com/guides/how-to-backtest-a-crypto-strategy); the metrics on the cards are explained
in [backtest metrics explained](https://janorium.com/guides/backtest-metrics-explained).

## Results: profit, but far behind holding

|                                 |      1d |      4h |
| ------------------------------- | ------: | ------: |
| Runs in profit                  |  8 / 10 |  4 / 10 |
| Runs ahead of buy and hold      |  2 / 10 |  0 / 10 |
| Runs ahead of the random median |  5 / 10 |  2 / 10 |
| Median return                   | +94.10% | -13.39% |
| Median win rate                 |   66.7% |   66.9% |
| Median max drawdown             |   60.4% |   77.7% |

The rule is right more often than not — about two of three trades closed in profit on both timeframes — and that is
exactly what the 30/70 levels promise: buy a dip, sell a bounce. The trouble is the trades that go wrong. With no
stop, a trade bought on the way down stays open until RSI finally reaches 70, which in a falling market can take
months. And in a rising market the rule is mostly out: RSI rarely drops below 30 during a bull run, so on BTC much of
the 2020–2021 and 2024 rallies happened without it.

**Backtest: [RSI 30/70 reversal (RSI 14) — article study](https://janorium.com/backtests/704)**  
BTCUSDT · 1d · Spot · 2020-01-01 → 2026-10-01

| Return | Max drawdown | Sharpe | Win rate | Trades |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| +68.14% | 48.05% | 0.40 | 70.0% | 10 |

*BTC, daily candles: +68.14% against +1,078.75% for holding*

On BTC daily the rule traded 10 times in almost seven years. Between its exit on 2020-04-30 and its next entry on
2021-05-21 it held nothing, while BTC's daily close went from 8,620 to above 60,000 USDT and back to about 40,000. Its
worst trade was bought on 2022-05-15 and held until 2023-01-12 — through the rest of the 2022 bear market and the FTX
collapse — for -40.58%.

**Backtest: [RSI 30/70 reversal (RSI 14) — article study](https://janorium.com/backtests/705)**  
BTCUSDT · 4h · Spot · 2020-01-01 → 2026-10-01

| Return | Max drawdown | Sharpe | Win rate | Trades |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| +107.33% | 70.52% | 0.48 | 72.5% | 69 |

*BTC, 4-hour candles: +107.33% against +1,059.22% for holding*

On 4-hour candles BTC traded 69 times and did better than on daily ones; on ETH it was the reverse — -10.35% daily
([run](https://janorium.com/backtests/706)) and -61.35% on 4h ([run](https://janorium.com/backtests/707)), while ETH itself went up +1,969.60%.

## The best and the worst cell

**Backtest: [RSI 30/70 reversal (RSI 14) — article study](https://janorium.com/backtests/708)**  
LINKUSDT · 1d · Spot · 2020-01-01 → 2026-10-01

| Return | Max drawdown | Sharpe | Win rate | Trades |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| +291.31% | 75.89% | 0.66 | 66.7% | 9 |

*The best cell, LINK daily: +291.31% against +500.59% for holding*

**Backtest: [RSI 30/70 reversal (RSI 14) — article study](https://janorium.com/backtests/709)**  
ADAUSDT · 4h · Spot · 2020-01-01 → 2026-10-01

| Return | Max drawdown | Sharpe | Win rate | Trades |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| -88.74% | 94.26% | -0.25 | 48.0% | 50 |

*The worst cell, ADA on 4-hour candles: -88.74% against +634.86% for holding*

Even the best of the 20 runs stayed behind holding the same coin. The two runs that did beat holding — LTC and BCH on
daily candles, +142.23% and +36.82% — did it on the two coins that went almost nowhere over the period (+17.13% and
-9.03% for holding).

## Was it the signal or just the market?

A long-only rule can make money simply because the coin went up while it was in a trade. The random-entry baseline
takes that away: for each run, 2,000 simulated runs with the same number of trades and the same average holding time,
but entries at random dates.

If the RSI signal added nothing, about half of the 20 runs would end above their random median and about two would land
in each 10% tail. The rule ended above the median in 7 of 20 runs — 5 of 10 on daily candles, 2 of 10 on 4-hour ones.
None reached the top 10% of its random runs; three fell into the bottom 10%, all on 4-hour candles: ETH, ADA and DOGE.
The median run beat 37.0% of its random runs. The best cases, LTC and LINK on daily candles, beat 84.8% and 79.9% of theirs —
on 9 trades each. One simplification: every random trade is held for exactly the rule's average time, while the rule's
own trades last from days to many months.

All 20 runs:

| Coin | TF  |                       Rule | Buy & hold | Random entry, median | Random runs beaten | Trades | Max drawdown |
| ---- | --- | -------------------------: | ---------: | -------------------: | -----------------: | -----: | -----------: |
| BTC  | 1d  |  [+68.14%](https://janorium.com/backtests/704) | +1,078.75% |             +128.05% |              35.4% |     10 |       48.05% |
| ETH  | 1d  |  [-10.35%](https://janorium.com/backtests/706) | +1,969.60% |             +137.72% |              17.1% |      8 |       62.22% |
| BNB  | 1d  |                    +47.45% | +5,525.66% |             +247.38% |              24.2% |      8 |       58.62% |
| XRP  | 1d  |                   +158.35% |   +673.84% |              +82.80% |              60.9% |     11 |       53.10% |
| ADA  | 1d  |                     -4.83% |   +476.37% |             +131.23% |              26.6% |     12 |       77.42% |
| DOGE | 1d  |                   +120.06% | +3,887.07% |             +302.40% |              37.0% |     13 |       48.43% |
| LTC  | 1d  |                   +142.23% |    +17.13% |               -3.26% |              84.8% |      9 |       68.17% |
| LINK | 1d  | [+291.31%](https://janorium.com/backtests/708) |   +500.59% |              +49.80% |              79.9% |      9 |       75.89% |
| BCH  | 1d  |                    +36.82% |     -9.03% |               -9.02% |              65.5% |      9 |       67.30% |
| TRX  | 1d  |                   +189.47% | +2,432.53% |             +125.89% |              62.8% |      9 |       27.68% |
| BTC  | 4h  | [+107.33%](https://janorium.com/backtests/705) | +1,059.22% |             +144.33% |              41.4% |     69 |       70.52% |
| ETH  | 4h  |  [-61.35%](https://janorium.com/backtests/707) | +1,970.71% |             +226.75% |               1.6% |     56 |       79.15% |
| BNB  | 4h  |                   +232.64% | +5,469.44% |             +410.48% |              34.9% |     58 |       58.56% |
| XRP  | 4h  |                    -25.12% |   +673.83% |             +118.63% |              19.6% |     64 |       87.72% |
| ADA  | 4h  |  [-88.74%](https://janorium.com/backtests/709) |   +634.86% |             +131.03% |               1.0% |     50 |       94.26% |
| DOGE | 4h  |                    -58.04% | +4,639.00% |             +397.84% |               6.8% |     53 |       76.16% |
| LTC  | 4h  |                    +42.12% |    +61.35% |               +1.30% |              63.7% |     59 |       78.57% |
| LINK | 4h  |                     -1.66% |   +701.91% |              +97.25% |              27.3% |     58 |       84.84% |
| BCH  | 4h  |                    -26.94% |    +44.20% |               -5.07% |              40.6% |     58 |       76.81% |
| TRX  | 4h  |                   +201.76% | +2,447.03% |             +171.04% |              54.4% |     54 |       63.03% |

Each return links to its run where it was saved; the others are re-runs of the same strategy that were not stored —
the saved runs reproduce them to the cent. "Random runs beaten" is the share of the 2,000 random-entry runs that ended
below the rule.

> **What this test does not show**
>
> - **One rule, as written, no variants.** RSI 14 and the 30/70 levels are the textbook values; no other periods,
>   levels or exits were tried. A stop or a time limit would change the numbers, and searching for the best combination
>   would find one that looks good in hindsight.
> - **A 30/70 exit is not the only reading of "RSI".** Many traders sell at 50 or use RSI only as a filter; this tests
>   the plainest version.
> - **Spot, 2020–2026, ten coins.** One market history with two large bull runs; a daily run has only 8–13 trades, too
>   few to tell skill from luck on one coin.
> - **Coins whose platform history starts on 2020-01-01** (ADA, DOGE, LTC, LINK, BCH) spend the first 14 candles warming
>   up RSI, and their buy and hold is counted from the same later start — which is why holding ADA shows +476.37% on
>   daily and +634.86% on 4-hour runs.

## Conclusion

- The textbook RSI 30/70 rule made money on most large coins on daily candles — 8 of 10 — and two of three of its
  trades were winners.
- It beat buy and hold in only 2 of 20 runs, both on coins that went nowhere: it sits out bull runs and, without a stop,
  holds losers for months.
- Against random entry dates with the same holding time it was no better than chance — above the random median in 7
  of 20 runs, and below 90% of its random runs in 3.

The same test for two other classic signals: [MACD and Bollinger Bands on crypto](https://janorium.com/articles/macd-bollinger-bands-crypto-backtest).
A trend rule on the same kind of coins: [the golden cross on the top-20](https://janorium.com/articles/golden-cross-top-20-crypto-2020-2025).