# DCA or lump sum: a backtest of BTC and ETH

> DCA or lump sum? 136 twelve-month backtests on BTC and ETH since 2020: buying at once ended ahead in 93, DCA had the smaller drawdown in all 136.

Research · Janorium · Published 2026-10-15  
Web page: https://janorium.com/articles/dca-vs-lump-sum-btc-eth-backtest

Across 136 twelve-month windows on BTC and ETH since 2020, putting 10,000 USDT in at once ended ahead of 52 weekly buys 93 times. DCA won the windows that started near the 2021 top — and had the smaller drawdown in every one of the 136.

![Six headline numbers: buying at once ahead in 93 of 136 windows, 48 of 68 on BTC, 45 of 68 on ETH, DCA's drawdown smaller in 136 of 136, worst year at once -71.33%, worst year with DCA -60.20%](https://janorium.com/articles/dca-vs-lump-sum-btc-eth-backtest/scorecard.en.svg 'Two rules, two coins, 68 start months — every number is from the runs below')

## Setup

- **Lump sum:** 9,880 USDT of a 10,000 USDT account goes into BTC or ETH on the first bar of the window, then
  nothing happens until the window ends.
- **DCA:** 190 USDT every Monday, 52 times — the same 9,880 USDT spread over the year — then hold to the end.
- **Windows:** 12 months long, one starting on the 1st of every month from 2020-01 to 2025-08 — 68 windows per coin,
  136 pairs of runs. Both positions are sold at the window's last close.
- **Market and costs:** Binance spot, daily candles, 0.1% fee and 0.05% slippage on every buy and sell, fills at the
  next day's open. Cash waiting to be invested earns nothing.
- **Runs:** two strategies — lump sum #35 and DCA #36 — 272 runs, #186–#457. Nothing was tuned.

## Who ended the year ahead

![Two rows of 68 cells, BTC and ETH: which approach ended each 12-month window ahead, by start month](https://janorium.com/articles/dca-vs-lump-sum-btc-eth-backtest/strip.en.svg 'Teal — buying at once ended ahead, indigo — DCA did')

Buying at once won 93 of the 136 windows: 48 of 68 on BTC and 45 of 68 on ETH. It won every window that started in
2020 or 2023, on both coins. DCA won every window that started between August 2021 and June 2022 — the year after
the top — on both coins.

The rule behind it is simple: buying at once ends ahead exactly when its one buy was cheaper than the average price
DCA paid over the year. The price at the end of the window cannot change the winner — after the last DCA buy both
accounts hold only coins, and the gap between them is fixed.

![Two panels, BTC and ETH: the 12-month return of buying at once and of DCA for every start month, log scale](https://janorium.com/articles/dca-vs-lump-sum-btc-eth-backtest/returns.en.svg 'Shaded columns are the windows DCA won')

| Window started | BTC: at once ahead | ETH: at once ahead |
| -------------- | -----------------: | -----------------: |
| 2020           |           12 of 12 |           12 of 12 |
| 2021           |            4 of 12 |            7 of 12 |
| 2022           |            5 of 12 |            4 of 12 |
| 2023           |           12 of 12 |           12 of 12 |
| 2024           |           12 of 12 |            5 of 12 |
| 2025 (to Aug)  |             3 of 8 |             5 of 8 |

The first window shows the size of what DCA gives up in a rising year:

**Backtest: [Lump sum: buy once, hold](https://janorium.com/backtests/187)**  
BTCUSDT · 1d · Spot · 2020-01-01 → 2021-01-01

| Return | Max drawdown | Sharpe | Win rate | Trades |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| +303.60% | 53.17% | 2.27 | 100.0% | 1 |

*BTC, 2020: buying at once +303.60%*

**Backtest: [DCA: 52 weekly buys, hold](https://janorium.com/backtests/186)**  
BTCUSDT · 1d · Spot · 2020-01-01 → 2021-01-01

| Return | Max drawdown | Sharpe | Win rate | Trades |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| +191.80% | 12.83% | 3.13 | 100.0% | 52 |

*BTC, 2020: 52 weekly buys +191.80%*

And what it saves in a falling one — the window that started at the November 2021 top:

**Backtest: [Lump sum: buy once, hold](https://janorium.com/backtests/274)**  
BTCUSDT · 1d · Spot · 2021-11-01 → 2022-11-01

| Return | Max drawdown | Sharpe | Win rate | Trades |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| -65.62% | 71.91% | -1.39 | 0.0% | 1 |

*BTC from 2021-11: buying at once -65.62%, max drawdown 71.91%*

**Backtest: [DCA: 52 weekly buys, hold](https://janorium.com/backtests/276)**  
BTCUSDT · 1d · Spot · 2021-11-01 → 2022-11-01

| Return | Max drawdown | Sharpe | Win rate | Trades |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| -31.67% | 38.76% | -1.10 | 19.2% | 52 |

*BTC from 2021-11: 52 weekly buys -31.67%, max drawdown 38.76%*

## Drawdowns

![Two panels, BTC and ETH: max drawdown of buying at once and of DCA inside every window](https://janorium.com/articles/dca-vs-lump-sum-btc-eth-backtest/drawdowns.en.svg 'Indigo sits above teal in every column: DCA always fell less')

DCA had the smaller max drawdown in all 136 windows. Buying at once fell 19.79–72.06% from a peak on BTC and
26.73–78.90% on ETH; DCA fell 12.07–59.05% and 13.86–68.80%. The worst year for buying at once was ETH from 2021-12,
-71.33%; the worst for DCA was ETH from 2021-07, -60.20%. The best years run the other way: +1,334.18% at once against
+559.40% for DCA, both on ETH in spring 2020.

> **What this test does not show**
>
> - **The windows overlap.** Neighbouring windows share 11 of their 12 months, and BTC and ETH move together, so 136
>   windows are far fewer than 136 independent tests — read the counts as "how often", not as odds.
> - **DCA's smaller drawdown is partly its cash.** The drawdown is measured on the whole account, and early in the year
>   most of a DCA account is still cash that cannot fall.
> - **Idle cash earns nothing here.** A stablecoin yield on the money waiting to be invested would help DCA a little.
> - **One schedule, one budget, one market.** Weekly buys over 12 months, 10,000 USDT, spot BTC and ETH, windows
>   starting 2020-01 to 2025-08 — another stretch of history can split the other way.

## Conclusion

- Over 2020–2026, buying at once ended the year ahead in about two windows out of three, on both coins.
- DCA paid off in the year after a top: every window that started between August 2021 and June 2022.
- DCA always fell less along the way — which is what it buys: a smaller drawdown, at the price of a lower return in
  most windows.

More research: [the golden cross on the top-20 coins](https://janorium.com/articles/golden-cross-top-20-crypto-2020-2025). How a backtest
like this is put together: [what backtesting is](https://janorium.com/guides/what-is-backtesting).